Capitalogix Commentary for the Week of 03/15/10

Breadth Continues to Expand.

The Markets are showing signs of health and strength.  These charts, from, show the internal strength and breadth powering the move higher and supporting the current rally.


Here is an intra-day chart of the S&P 500 Index for the past three weeks. It is a modified version of something I saw on Breakpoint Trades' site.  It shows the decision-point; price has pulled-back to the trend-line. 

In bull markets, this is where Buyers tend to appear.  In contrast, Sellers probably see the bearish wedge and negative divergence as signs of waning momentum.  Add the potential sell-signal from over-bought stochastics, and we have an interesting set-up for next week.

100311 SP500 Intra-Day Chart

Even if the markets sell-off from here, there are now a number of support levels close by.

The markets have continued to do well, what about the economy?  I think the Employment situation is a primary indicator.

We Stand Out – With Respect to the Severity of our Under-Employment Situation.

There is disagreement about whether the recent jobs number was a positive sign.  Some are focusing on the slowing decline; others are focusing on the continued weakness … still others are focusing on the continued downwards adjustments.  Nonetheless, this chart makes something clear.  Compared to other recessions, the job losses (and lack of job gains), of this Recession are truly unprecedented.

Job Losses Compared Across Recessions

Here is a different way to look at what that chart means.

100314 Stimulus Worked Cartoon

Business Posts Moving the
that I Found Interesting This Week

  • A Gold Bubble? Sure, But Soros is Still In.(HedgeFundNet)
  • Increasing M&A Transactions are a Positive Sign of Recovery.  (MSNBC)
  • Betting It All On Growth – Will it Fix Unemployment, Deficits
    the Credit Crisis? (WSJ)
  • The Double-Dip Watch. (FT)
  • What Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Shareholders Didn't Say. (SeekingAlpha)
  • More Posts
    Moving the Markets

Lighter Ideas and
Fun Links

that I Found Interesting This Week

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