Capitalogix Commentary for the Week of 03/29/10

Markets climb a wall of worry … but I don't recall a bull run, like we've seen recently, with so much fear and loathing as a back-drop.

100329 Political Cartoon Medical Advice for Obama About the Deficit

The U.S. equity markets have held-up remarkably well, and much better than I expected.

Yet, the Euro continues to struggle.  It is worth noting that  some traders believe that the Euro can be used to predict the S&P
.  So, here is a daily chart showing that price is at the mid-line of the downwards sloping trend channel.

100325 Euro Weakness

Here is a different way of looking at the Euro's woes.

image from

Here is someone else betting against the Euro.

Jim Rogers Guarantees Another Recession.

George Soros' ex-partner at the Quantum Fund isn't afraid to share his thoughts.  In a recent CNBC interview, Jim says he doesn't pay attention to the Fed, and that he expects Western Currencies to be weak. However, many will focus on these comments: “Yes, we’re going to have another recession, I guarantee you … By 2012 say, it’s time for another recession, … and the next time it’s going to be worse, because we’ve shot all of our bullets”. Here is the video.

For a different look at how the economy's recovery is doing, here is a look at consumer spending.

Consumer Spending a Reliable Leading Indicator of GDP?

The Consumer Metrics Institute produces a U.S.
consumption index based on actual transaction data for a range of major
discretionary purchases such as cars, houses, durable goods, and
vacations. As such, this index was designed to react quickly to
significant consumer spending changes
in a number of
different segments of economy.

As shown below, their 'Growth Index' has led changes in U.S. GDP reasonably
. Currently, it disagrees strongly with the upbeat story
portrayed by
other leading indicator

100322 Does Consumer Spending Predict GDP

I hope you have a good week.

Business Posts Moving the
that I Found Interesting This Week

Lighter Ideas and
Fun Links

that I Found Interesting This Week

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