Capitalogix Commentary 01/17/11 - The Stat That Proves Bears Can't Catch a Break

Beware What You Wish For …

110117 Inconvenient Truth or Reassuring Lie
Bears just can't catch a break. 

The Market is holding up well.  By that, I mean it isn't going down well.

The Smallest "Biggest" Decline in 50 Years.

According to Bespoke, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hasn't had a 1% down day since before Thanksgiving; and Monday's 0.32% pullback is the biggest decline the index has had since the start of December. 
It is nearly unprecedented to go this long without having a one-day decline of at least one-third of one percent.  Over the last 50 years, Bespoke found just three other 30-trading day periods where the index had a maximum decline of just 0.33%. 
110117  Smallest Biggest Declines in a 30-Day Period

Back in April and May of 1965, the Dow went 30+ trading days without declining more than 0.15%.  Later on that same year, the Dow had another 30-day period where its biggest down day was just 0.32%.  And in 1963, the Dow's maximum one-day decline was just 0.33% over a 30-day period.

Can you really blame investors for being bullish when it's hard to remember what a down day feels like?

Until the Markets have a meaningful correction, Smile … and stay watchful.

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