Is Clinton Pulling Too Far Ahead For Trump to Catch Her?

It has been a rough week for the Presidential prospects of Donald Trump.

According to Betfair, the odds for Clinton to win in November have rallied in the last several days and are back near their highs of the year at slightly more than 75%.

The chart, below, overlays the odds for a Democratic win and the performance of the S&P 500 Index.


160806 Betfair Election Odds

via Bespoke

That being said, in politics, three months is a lifetime;  and Trump has made some miraculous recoveries before in his career.  

In each of the prior times where Clinton’s odds (late April and late June) have approached current levels, they have quickly pulled back.  

Conventional wisdom says that a strong stock market and a good economy are good for the incumbent party.  Consequently, the Dems are feeling confident with the S&P 500 at new highs and jobs data coming in strong for the second straight month.  Will this be where Clinton finally breaks out (or are her odds due for another pullback)?  

We’ll soon find out!

Leave a reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *