How Confident Are You About Who Will Win the Presidential Election?

With two days to go, Obama's odds of winning re-election have reached 85%, their highest level, according to the Five Thirty Eight forecast.


121104 Barack Obama Favored to Win 

Prediction market, Intrade, also has the President maintaining a solid lead, with a 65% chance of winning.

121104 Barack Obama Favored to Win by Intrade Markets  
The difference between the national polls and these results, is that the
national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Nate Silver's Five
Thirty Eight forecast focuses on state-by-state polls aimed at
determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it, the
Presidency. Nate Silver's model also averages hundreds of polls.

Nonetheless, it is a close race, and what you see depends on where you look … Some polls still seem favorable for Romney (especially on Fox).

But, as election day approaches, and we continue to get bombarded by both sides, remember to take it with a grain of sand and a smile while you remember they are just doing their job.

Mark Twain said it many years ago: "Don't ever let the facts spoil a good story."


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